Disclaimer

What this site is

LaggingTruth.com publishes research papers, plain-English companions, and registered research predictions about measurement lag in economic and financial systems. Everything on this site is general information and education, addressed to no one in particular. Nothing here is personalized to any reader’s circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance.

Not investment advice

Nothing on this site is investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation or offer to buy or sell any security, future, currency, commodity, digital asset, or other financial instrument. The author is not a registered investment adviser, broker-dealer, or financial planner, and nothing on this site creates an advisory, fiduciary, or client relationship of any kind. Before making any financial decision, consult a qualified professional who can evaluate your individual situation.

Risk statement

Trading and investing involve substantial risk of loss and are not suitable for everyone. Futures, options, and currency trading carry particularly high risk, including the possibility of losing more than the amount invested. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The research on this site analyzes historical data — including long backtests across equities, futures, fixed income, and currencies — as attributions of what happened, not as trading strategies. Historical and hypothetical analyses have inherent limitations: they are constructed with the benefit of hindsight, do not reflect the costs, liquidity, and execution realities of actual trading, and no representation is made that any account will or is likely to achieve results resembling any analysis shown.

About the registered predictions

The forward predictions published on this site are scientific registrations: dated, falsifiable claims stated in advance so the underlying theories can be tested honestly against the future. They exist to make the research accountable, not to time markets. They are not forecasts to trade on, not signals, and not a forecasting service. Some of them are expected to fail; that is what makes them tests.

Accuracy and liability

The research here is built under a written verification standard — inputs are cryptographically fingerprinted, load-bearing numbers are machine-checked against committed code, and the process is documented publicly. That machinery reduces errors; it does not abolish them. All content is provided “as is,” without warranty of any kind, express or implied. The author does not warrant that the content is accurate, complete, or current, and accepts no liability for any loss or damage arising from reliance on anything published here. If an error is found, it is corrected publicly in the affected paper’s corrections log.

Data sources

Analyses draw on public and commercial data sources believed to be reliable — government statistical agencies, exchanges, and established data vendors — but their accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed, and revisions by the source can change what any analysis would show.

Beyond finance

Some research on this site applies the same framework to other domains — public health surveillance, hydrology, atmospheric science, and others. Nothing on this site is medical advice, engineering advice, or professional guidance in any domain. Decisions in those domains belong with qualified professionals in those fields.

AI involvement

This research is produced under a human-directed, AI-executed workflow, disclosed in detail in each paper and summarized on the verification page. The author takes full responsibility for all published content.

Analytics

This site uses Cloudflare Web Analytics (cookieless) and Microsoft Clarity to understand how pages are used. Clarity sets first-party cookies for anonymized usage analysis — which pages are read, how far, and where visitors stop — and masks any text typed into forms by default. Nothing is sold or shared, and visitors are not followed off this site. Details: Microsoft’s privacy statement.

The diagnostic

The diagnostic page uses the site’s analytics like any other page. The page where you load your own file uses none: no analytics, no session recording, nothing that observes the file or the result, and it works with your internet disconnected. The file is not uploaded or transmitted. If you save or print a report, the site records only that a report was saved — not what was in it. The diagnostic describes the dynamics of the numbers you give it and does not tell you what to order, buy, or sell.

Licensing and contact

Research papers are licensed CC BY-NC-ND 4.0, companions CC BY-NC 4.0, and analysis code MIT, as stated on each work. Questions: [email protected].