The essays
One essay a week translating the research into plain English — what trailing averages actually do, and what it costs when institutions trust them. Published on Substack; every essay links back to the paper and code behind it.
This Won’t Make You Rich. But It Might Help You Avoid Losing It All.
September 24, 2026
The strategy I didn’t mean to build. I went looking for something aggressive; the research led somewhere else. Live since September 14 — and a poll.
The Obvious Fix
September 20, 2026
A package that has been "out for delivery" since 7:04 this morning, and what happened when I tested the fix everyone shouts at the Social Security formula.
The Loop
September 13, 2026
A conversation that keeps colliding, an instruction they give fighter pilots, and what happens when the rescue finally arrives — all at once.
The Phantom
September 6, 2026
A traffic jam with no wreck, a man with a sandwich, and why the bill never finds its way home.
The Flu Alarm Is Armed — and This Winter, It Gets Graded
September 2, 2026
A stock-market tool beat the standard flu alarm by two months, on average, across 27 seasons. Two predictions about this winter are already frozen.
The Reflection and the Star
August 30, 2026
A speedometer, a rejection letter, and the optical illusion hiding in every chart.
No Recession Detected — Yet
August 25, 2026
A registered detector, recomputed weekly from public unemployment filings, currently reads all quiet. What it watches — and what it will say first when that changes.
Perfectly, Uselessly Correct
August 23, 2026
A restaurant rating, a retirement cheque, and the strange harm done by numbers that are exactly right.
Get each essay as it publishes
Free, one a week, plus the launch announcements for the tools. Unsubscribe anytime. If the confirmation email lands in spam, moving it to your inbox tells your provider to trust the rest.