Forward predictions
A prediction registered after the fact proves nothing. Every prediction here is dated, public, and falsifiable — stated before the outcome is known, with the conditions under which it should be judged wrong written down in advance. Each is registered inside its research paper or its repository; these pages are the tracking layer, the papers hold the rules. The future does the grading.
Status: registered, frozen — the first live boards are running. Every prediction here is locked in advance: the claim, the data sources, and the grading rules. Two predictions now carry live tracking boards, recomputed from their named public sources with every update — the next recession and flu-season onset. Boards for the remaining predictions are in development; their registrations are complete and binding now, only the display is coming. Subscribe below and each new board’s launch reaches you first.
The next U.S. recession — a three-step ladder, registered and running
A standing alert ladder for the next U.S. recession — WATCH, ELEVATED, CONFIRMED — with self-cancelling false-alarm rules and a frozen all-quiet starting board.
Flu season — onset detection ahead of the standard method
The divergence detector fires at least six weeks ahead of the standard method for flu-season onset — and the first-firing strain dominates the season.
Supply chains — which sectors whiplash at the next recession
Nine boundary-oscillating sectors whiplash harder than eight never-crossing sectors — with a major chip sector registered on the calm side.
Market convergence episodes — a standing falsifier through 2031
When the four-sensor convergence measure reaches its elevated band, the next 63 trading days should be rougher than chance — a standing falsifier through 2031.
Three institutions, three lags — Basel, Social Security, pensions
Three institutional lags, three registered calls: the credit gauge understates the next boom, the COLA lags the next inflation surge, pension smoothing overstates assets in the next crash.
Credit in the next recession — two counterintuitive calls
Two counterintuitive calls: credit-to-GDP rises after the peak, and total bank credit does not contract more than 3%.
"The buffer won't be there" — the G7 at the next credit contraction
At the next synchronized G7 credit contraction, no G7 economy will have its countercyclical capital buffer at an effective 2.0% or higher.
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Some papers carry no forward prediction by design — the foundational theory papers are engines the others build on. Education, not advice: nothing here is a forecast service or an investment signal.